DeAndre Hopkins, Texans
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There's no denying DeAndre Hopkins is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. A supreme talent whose technical mastery allows him to get every ounce out of his physical ability, Hopkins dominated last season. In just his third NFL season, Hopkins amassed 111 receptions and 1,521 yards to finish as the WR4 overall in PPR leagues.
There's no logical argument that paints Hopkins as anything but a superstar-level player. However, he is overvalued as a fantasy commodity this year should his consensus first-round ADP hold up.
Fantasy owners have a tendency to only remember either the beginning or end of the season when perusing end of season rankings. Yet, the NFL season is often multiple stories woven together into the quilt that forms a player's final fantasy numbers. It's important to contextualize each layer of Hopkins' 2015 story when projecting him for 2016.
During the first eight weeks of the regular season, Hopkins was a target monster. He averaged 14 targets per game and never received less than 11 in any contest. That volume helped him overcome a rotating quarterback carousel to average 8.25 catches, 108 yards and .75 touchdowns per game. Hopkins was the WR2 overall in standard fantasy leagues during that stretch.
However, after the Texans Week 9 bye, Hopkins' torrid pace naturally slowed down. He never saw more than 12 targets in any of his final eight games and averaged a more typical 10 per contest. His per game averages slipped to 5.6 catches, 81 yards and .63 touchdowns.
Normally there's a ton of noise in the data when breaking a season into two halves, due to the small sample size provided by the NFL season. In this case though, there may be a bit more benefit to the exercise than normal because we have a clear cause to the effect.
The Texans found a winning formula down the stretch with a strong 6-2 finish to their 2015 season after starting 3-5. Bill O'Brien's offenses have always favored a run-heavy approach since he entered the NFL. His units finished first and fifth in terms of run attempts in his first two seasons. They were forced to veer of their preferred approach in the first half of the season when their underperforming defense and dysfunctional offense put them in trailing positons all too often.
O'Brien's offenses always like to play with tempo, they've ranked eighth and first in plays run over his two seasons. But that was drastically inflated during their first eight games in 2015. The Texans ran 74 plays-per-game during that stretch, which was 10 more than the league average of 64 for the season. O'Brien also had to skew more pass-heavy than he prefers while the team played in so many negative game scripts averaging 5.6 passing plays per drive to just 2.6 rushing.
As mentioned, the winds in Houston changed after the bye week. The defense improved and the team started winning games. Consequently that returned the balance that O'Brien prefers to the play calling. In the final eight games of the season the Texans ran 3.59 rush plays per drive to 4.14 pass plays per drive. Their pace also slowed down to something closer to the league average running 66 plays per game.
As fantasy drafters, it should bring some concern that his numbers took a direct hit when the Texansstarted winning games. The Texans' offseason moves--taking two wide receivers on the first two days of the draft, paying a running back in free agency and talking up Jaelen Strong--are further proof they don't want Hopkins seeing the volume he did in 2015. He'll be hard pressed to crack 190 targets again even if he does maintain his elite-level 31 percent market share.
Unlike other regression candidates the community seems to insist we focus on, like Allen Robinson or Brandon Marshall, we already have on-field evidence of the conditions for a Hopkins slowdown. Yet, that already witnessed reality is not priced into his current ADP in the slightest. Some will argue that the new face at quarterback will elevate Hopkins, but Brock Osweiler is a conservative passer who performed worse than Brian Hoyer in predictive statistical categories like touchdown rate, interception rate and air yards per pass attempt. At best, it's a lateral move from the behind center play Hopkins got late in the season.
DeAndre Hopkins is a tremendous NFL player and the pinnacle of greatness among the crowded crop of young wide receivers in the league right now. However, he should not be the consensus fourth wide receiver off the board, as he is on ADP data across the industry. When you take into account talent and project volume, A.J. Green makes a far more convincing case to be that player.
There's little doubt that Hopkins finishes as a WR1 in fantasy firmly within the top-10. However, I have him in my second tier among receivers at WR9 overall in my latest rankings. That tier spans from WR5 to WR11 and Hopkins could certainly land anywhere in that group. He won't be a bust in fantasy this season, not even close, but the community ought to approach Hopkins' redraft stock with more caution than they are at this point.
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